# Difference between revisions of "Applied/ACMS/absS15"

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In this presentation I will (i) describe the Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) technique, (ii) apply LIM to determine an empirical dynamical operator that governs the evolution of tropical Pacific climate variability, (iii) define norms under which initial conditions can be derived that optimally lead to growth of CP or EP ENSO events, and (iv) identify patterns of stochastic forcing that are responsible for exciting each type of event. | In this presentation I will (i) describe the Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) technique, (ii) apply LIM to determine an empirical dynamical operator that governs the evolution of tropical Pacific climate variability, (iii) define norms under which initial conditions can be derived that optimally lead to growth of CP or EP ENSO events, and (iv) identify patterns of stochastic forcing that are responsible for exciting each type of event. | ||

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+ | === Markos Katsoulakis (U Mass Amherst) === | ||

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+ | ''Information Theory methods for parameter sensitivity and coarse-graining of high-dimensional stochastic dynamics'' | ||

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+ | In this talk we discuss path-space information theory-based sensitivity analysis and parameter identification methods for complex high-dimensional dynamics, as well as information-theoretic tools for parameterized coarse-graining of non-equilibrium extended systems. Furthermore, we establish their connections with goal-oriented methods in terms of new, sharp, uncertainty quantification inequalities. The combination of proposed methodologies is capable to (a) handle molecular-level models with a very large number of parameters, (b) address and mitigate the high-variance in statistical estimators, e.g. for sensitivity analysis, in spatially distributed | ||

+ | |||

+ | Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC), (c) tackle non-equilibrium processes, typically associated with coupled physicochemical mechanisms, boundary conditions, etc. (such as reaction-diffusion systems), and where even steady states are unknown altogether, e.g. do not have a Gibbs structure. Finally, the path-wise information theory tools, (d) yield a surprisingly simple, tractable and easy-to-implement approach to quantify and rank parameter sensitivities, as well as (e) provide reliable molecular model parameterizations for coarse-grained molecular systems and their dynamics, based on fine-scale data and rational model selection methods through suitable path-space (dynamics-based) information criteria. The proposed methods are tested against a wide range of high-dimensional stochastic processes, ranging from complex biochemical reaction networks with hundreds of parameters, to spatially extended Kinetic Monte Carlo models in catalysis and Langevin dynamics of interacting molecules with internal degrees of freedom. | ||

=== Tao Zhou (Chinese Academy of Sciences) === | === Tao Zhou (Chinese Academy of Sciences) === |

## Revision as of 09:48, 4 February 2015

## Contents

# ACMS Abstracts: Spring 2015

### Irene Kyza (U Dundee)

*Adaptivity and blowup detection for semilinear evolution convection-diffusion equations based on a posteriori error control*

We discuss recent results on the a posteriori error control and adaptivity for an evolution semilinear convection-diffusion model problem with possible blowup in finite time. This belongs to the broad class of partial differential equations describing e.g., tumor growth,chemotaxis and cell modelling. In particular, we derive a posteriori error estimates that are conditional (estimates which are valid under conditions of a posteriori type) for an interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin (dG) implicit-explicit (IMEX) method using a continuation argument. Compared to a previous work, the obtained conditions are more localised and allow the efficient error control near the blowup time. Utilising the conditional a posteriori estimator we are able to propose an adaptive algorithm that appears to perform satisfactorily. In particular, it leads to good approximation of the blowup time and of the exact solution close to the blowup. Numerical experiments illustrate and complement our theoretical results. This is joint work with A. Cangiani, E.H. Georgoulis, and S. Metcalfe from the University of Leicester.

### Daniel Vimont (UW)

*Linear Inverse Modeling of Central and East Pacific El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events*

Research on the structure and evolution of individual El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events has identified two categories of ENSO event characteristics that can be defined by maximum equatorial SST anomalies centered in the Central Pacific (around the dateline to 150 deg. W; CP events) or in the Eastern Pacific (east of about 150 deg. W; EP events). The distinction between these two events is not just academic: both types of event evolve differently, implying different predictability; the events tend to have different maximum amplitude; and the global teleconnection differs between each type of event.

In this presentation I will (i) describe the Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) technique, (ii) apply LIM to determine an empirical dynamical operator that governs the evolution of tropical Pacific climate variability, (iii) define norms under which initial conditions can be derived that optimally lead to growth of CP or EP ENSO events, and (iv) identify patterns of stochastic forcing that are responsible for exciting each type of event.

### Markos Katsoulakis (U Mass Amherst)

*Information Theory methods for parameter sensitivity and coarse-graining of high-dimensional stochastic dynamics*

In this talk we discuss path-space information theory-based sensitivity analysis and parameter identification methods for complex high-dimensional dynamics, as well as information-theoretic tools for parameterized coarse-graining of non-equilibrium extended systems. Furthermore, we establish their connections with goal-oriented methods in terms of new, sharp, uncertainty quantification inequalities. The combination of proposed methodologies is capable to (a) handle molecular-level models with a very large number of parameters, (b) address and mitigate the high-variance in statistical estimators, e.g. for sensitivity analysis, in spatially distributed

Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC), (c) tackle non-equilibrium processes, typically associated with coupled physicochemical mechanisms, boundary conditions, etc. (such as reaction-diffusion systems), and where even steady states are unknown altogether, e.g. do not have a Gibbs structure. Finally, the path-wise information theory tools, (d) yield a surprisingly simple, tractable and easy-to-implement approach to quantify and rank parameter sensitivities, as well as (e) provide reliable molecular model parameterizations for coarse-grained molecular systems and their dynamics, based on fine-scale data and rational model selection methods through suitable path-space (dynamics-based) information criteria. The proposed methods are tested against a wide range of high-dimensional stochastic processes, ranging from complex biochemical reaction networks with hundreds of parameters, to spatially extended Kinetic Monte Carlo models in catalysis and Langevin dynamics of interacting molecules with internal degrees of freedom.

### Tao Zhou (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

*The Christoffel function weighted least-squares for stochastic collocation approximations: applications to Uncertainty Quantification*

We shall consider the multivariate stochastic collocation methods on unstructured grids. The motivation for such a study is the applications in parametric Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). We will first give a general framework of stochastic collocation methods, which include approaches such as compressed sensing, least-squares, and interpolation. Particular attention will be then given to the least-squares approach, and we will review recent progresses in this topic.

### Elaine Spiller (Marquette)

TBA